Ongoing study of Kalshi’s short-dated Bitcoin contracts (KXBTC15M). We record market activity, apply entry and exit rules offline, and report the results here. Figures are simulated paper outcomes, not live account balances.
Path of cumulative dollars under the baseline rule set: single-contract size, cooldown between entries, simulated exits. Each step is one settled 15-minute market.
Dollar result for each settled window. Solid series uses entry cooldown. Dashed series takes more signals in the same windows (no cooldown).
Average paper P&L per market when the model’s minimum confidence (predicted win probability) is raised or lowered. Same size and cooldown as the baseline path. Bars above zero are net positive in this sample.
Markets open on a fixed 15-minute schedule and settle against the Bitcoin spot path for that interval. Our research process streams prices and order-book features, forms a win-probability estimate, and may flag an entry when that estimate clears a threshold. Paper P&L applies fees and simplified exit logic after the fact. It is not a live order log.
The public feed updates when new research windows are published. Open pages recheck the data file about every five minutes.
Kalshi’s recurring 15-minute Bitcoin up/down contracts. Each series has a fixed strike and settle time.
One complete 15-minute contract after final settlement. Charts step once per settled market.
Minimum model confidence required before a paper entry is counted. Higher thresholds mean fewer, more selective trades.
Minimum wait after an entry before another paper entry is allowed. Cuts down on stacking trades in a short span.
Simulated profit or loss from the research rules, including assumed fees. Not matched to a public brokerage statement.
Baseline charts use one contract so series stay comparable. Larger sizes appear in internal research matrices, not on this page.
P&L path that walks prices after entry and applies take-profit / stop / time rules, rather than only holding to settlement.
Share of flagged entry episodes whose paper outcome was profitable under the scoring rules for that episode.